AGP Executive Report

Regulatory Pressure: New Zealand’s Reserve Bank has filed High Court civil proceedings against The Co-operative Bank over three AML/CFT failures, with the parties jointly recommending a $1.425m penalty. Banking Policy: Budget 2026 introduces a prudential levy on banks, non-bank deposit takers, insurers and financial market infrastructure providers to fund RBNZ prudential work, targeting about $209m over four years. Rates Watch: RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% after a split MPC vote, while South Korea’s Bank of Korea held at 2.50% as inflation and geopolitics pull in different directions. Markets: India’s Sensex and Nifty fell for a second day as investors stayed cautious amid West Asia signals and foreign outflows. Capital Moves: Russia’s VTB plans an additional share issue to raise capital, while Raiffeisen’s takeover bid for Addiko advances as management backs the offer most likely to close. Credit Trends: India’s microfinance portfolio fell 9% year-on-year in April as private banks stayed cautious. Tech & Risk: Banks and telecoms are stress-testing against AI-driven cyber risks after an Anthropic Mythos alert.

Banking Earnings & Markets: Bank of America expects trading revenue to jump 15% in Q2, while JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says Wall Street clients are “gung ho” and flags higher expenses, with investment banking and trading revenue growth in focus. Banking Sector Health: The FDIC reports US banks made $80.5bn in net income in Q1 as lending picked up, even as net interest margins slipped and securities losses rose. Central Banking Watch: South Africa’s Reserve Bank is widely expected to lift the repo rate by 25 bps after CPI rose to 4% in April, with economists warning about second-round inflation effects. Credit & Risk Signals: China’s CreditEase has suspended payments on $4.4bn of wealth products, reviving shadow-banking concerns. Deals & Infrastructure: Bankinter Investment and Plenium Partners secured €530m financing for a 130MW solar portfolio in Spain. Consumer Finance & Fraud: Fidelity highlights growing use of separate accounts among younger couples, while separate reports cover bank-related fraud cases and app/tooling aimed at better money management. Crypto Custody: Italy’s Bank of Italy authorizes Banca Sella to offer MiCA-aligned Bitcoin and crypto custody. Public Finance/Development: The Philippines signed a $600m World Bank education reform loan and a $24.5m agriculture grant.

World Bank Exit: Nigeria’s federal government has cancelled the full $717.7m undisbursed World Bank power loan, ending a $1.52bn electricity recovery programme early and pulling the closing date forward to May 31, 2026. Regulatory Pressure on Banks: Australia’s Westpac was fined $26m for being “grossly negligent” after failing to respond within 21 days to 229 customer hardship requests. Fraud Crackdown: Mumbai Crime Branch arrested six online-loan recovery agents over alleged threats and harassment of a bank employee, remanding them until May 30. Market Watch: Central banks are warning inflation may linger even as markets rally on AI optimism; New Zealand held rates at 2.25% but split votes signalled hikes may come sooner. Governance Spotlight: India’s HDFC Bank marketing-spend dispute is back in focus after an internal probe was ordered into Rs 45 crore payments tied to MSRDC. Deposit/Trading Signals: YES Bank shares moved on an NSE order hitting its broking unit with a 3-month client onboarding ban and Rs 1 lakh penalty.

Geopolitics & FX Pressure: BDO Unibank warned the Middle East conflict could hit the Philippines harder via higher oil costs, faster inflation, tighter rates, and a weaker peso. AI & Jobs Anxiety: Pope Leo joined US bank CEOs in warning of an “AI job apocalypse,” arguing tech gains shouldn’t come at the expense of human work. Regulation & Crypto Clarity: Georgia’s central bank said UK-sanctioned virtual-asset firms aren’t under its supervision, with cases referred to law enforcement. Payments & Modernisation: Marqeta and Banking Circle expanded card and virtual-account tools across 30 European countries, while FIS said BankSouth chose its core platform to speed AI-ready integrations. Risk on the Move: UK aviation regulators urged safer power-bank packing after flight diversions tied to lithium-battery fires. Household Shock: A guide on what happens when a bank account is frozen right before payday highlighted how levies can disrupt deposits and payments. Local Finance Watch: Sri Lanka’s banks association said deposits remain safe despite isolated fraud and cyber incidents.

CFO Shuffle in Philippines Banking: Security Bank named EVP John David “JD” Yap as CFO from June 13, replacing Allen Reyes as the lender stresses governance and disciplined growth. Policy Pressure on Rates: Sri Lanka’s central bank lifted its Overnight Policy Rate to 8.75% to fight inflation, citing energy-price pressure and demand-driven expectations. Legal Heat on Lending: Mumbai police registered a case over an alleged Rs 150 crore Axis Bank fraud involving Reliance Home Finance, while a separate Mumbai court acquitted a cyber-fraud suspect, saying mere money credited to an account isn’t enough for criminal guilt. Festive Banking in Nigeria: LOTUS Bank’s Eid Souq drew crowds with heavily subsidised ram sales, as Signature Bank reported 2025 profit rising to N3.59bn. Markets Watch: India’s banking stocks traded mixed, with Nifty 50 slightly down near 24,001. Cross-border Finance: Russia’s central bank set the euro at 82.4493 rubles, and it also challenged EU Ukraine-support rules tied to frozen assets.

Airline Safety: easyJet diverted a London-bound flight to Rome after a passenger reported a power bank charging in checked luggage, with the airline citing rules that allow devices only in carry-on and not while charging in the hold. Central Banking: Israel’s Bank of Israel cut its benchmark rate to 3.75% from 4%, pointing to stable inflation and a stronger shekel, but warning geopolitics could slow future easing. Digital Finance & Inclusion: Bangladesh’s Prime Bank launched a Bangla QR cattle-buying system for Eid-ul-Azha, while BRAC Bank held nationwide SME e-loan conferences and demonstrated instant disbursement for its Shafollo product. Consumer Watch: A new report highlights how everyday bank fees can quietly drain savings in the US. Markets & Macro: Nigeria’s economy grew 3.89% in Q1, led by non-oil services and agriculture. Banking in the Real World: ServisFirst Bank opened a new Panama City office, expanding branch and treasury services. Bank Holiday Culture: Scotland’s Bank of Scotland issued a limited-edition £20 note featuring Scott McTominay’s World Cup overhead kick.

Banking Onboarding Push (Singapore): Singapore’s central bank is working with private banks to speed up wealthy clients’ account openings, aiming to cut median private-banking onboarding to under a month from six weeks, by tightening “risk-proportionate” source-of-wealth checks and trimming unnecessary steps. AI & Jobs Backlash (Global): Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters faced backlash after calling AI-driven cuts “lower-value human capital,” adding to a wider industry debate on how banks talk about headcount as automation ramps up. Ghana Recovery (IMF): The IMF says Ghana’s banking clean-up is near completion, with most banks recapitalised and back to capital adequacy after damage from the domestic debt restructuring. Ghana Fraud/Trust Theme (BFSI): Indian banking leaders at an AI conclave stressed governance and explainability as AI scales across customer journeys and fraud/risk decisions. Market Mood (India): India’s Nifty 50 saw heavy investor wealth erosion in 2026 so far, with HDFC Bank and TCS among the biggest drags, while foreign investors may stay cautious amid IT and banking headwinds. UK Bank Holiday Reality Check: Supermarket hours vary sharply on May 25, with several chains running shorter opening windows.

Banking Reform Push (Cambodia): Acting Head of State Hun Sen backed a plan to pay military and police salaries directly through banks, saying it will boost transparency and cut corruption. Tech Fix for Students (India): India’s education minister ordered IIT teams and four public sector banks (SBI, BoB, Canara, Indian Bank) to repair CBSE’s post-exam portal payment glitches and ensure automatic refunds. Dividend Pressure (Bangladesh): Bangladesh Bank’s new dividend rules—cash payouts capped and tighter capital thresholds—hit investor sentiment on the Dhaka bourse, with many banks unable to declare cash dividends. Heatwave Disruptions (UK): A “historic” bank holiday heatwave is driving health alerts across parts of the UK, with temperatures pushing into the low-to-mid 30s. Islamic Banking Shake-up (Bangladesh/Russia): Islami Bank Bangladesh chairman M Zubaidur Rahman resigned amid board turmoil, while Russia looks to expand Islamic banking demand. Geopolitics (Ukraine/West Bank): Ukraine’s central bank building reported mild damage in an overnight strike; meanwhile, violence and raids continued across the occupied West Bank.

Impeachment Crossroads: Philippines VP Sara Duterte’s trial set for July 6 is turning on whether prosecutors can access her official bank accounts, with former Ateneo dean Tony La Viña warning the case could be “fatal” without them—though appeals to the Supreme Court could complicate matters; earlier, the AMLC said banks flagged billions of pesos tied to Duterte and her husband, including 33 suspicious transactions and 630 covered dealings worth P6.7bn. Stablecoin Compliance Push: In the US, the FDIC advanced proposed Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions rules for FDIC-supervised payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. Scam Watch: Bank of Ireland urged shoppers to double-check card-terminal totals after a rise in overcharging scams. Crypto Market Shock: ZachXBT alleged StablR-linked contracts were exploited for about $10m, with EURR and USDR down 20%+ off peg. Banking in the Heat: UK bank-holiday travel and shopping disruptions continue amid record-breaking temperatures and Dover queue chaos.

Philippines Impeachment Watch: A key legal fight over Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment is turning on whether her official bank accounts are opened, with critics arguing it could be “fatal” to her case if they’re withheld; the Anti-Money Laundering Council previously flagged billions of pesos in transactions tied to Duterte and her husband. Uzbekistan Capital Markets: Asia Alliance Bank secured $15m from Austria’s OeEB for SME and green lending, while Uzbek National Bank signed a 1bn yuan credit line with Bank of China and the National Investment Fund’s LSE IPO drew $2.8bn in demand. UK Banking & Privacy: The UK’s DWP is set to get new powers to check benefit claimants’ bank accounts, sparking privacy concerns. Bank Holiday Disruption: Dover’s queues eased after France suspended extra EU border checks under EES as heat hit the UK. Lebanon Financial Rights: Lebanon’s central bank ordered banks to implement rules letting married women open accounts for minor children.

Banking Talent & Skills: Malaysia’s Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers handed out 700+ “Chartered Banker” recognitions, warning that AI and tech are outpacing staff capabilities and pushing banks to rethink what “banker” means. Customer Protection Rules: India’s RBI is drafting tougher loan-recovery guidelines—limited contact hours, bans on abusive tactics, and more training/verification for recovery agents—aiming for rules from Oct 1, 2026. Loan & Market Moves: India’s markets rebounded as banks led gains, while the Central Bank of India’s retail outreach in Gurugram included on-the-spot loan sanctions worth Rs 101 crore. Policy & Insolvency: Serbia prepared EU-aligned draft amendments covering credit intermediaries and debt counselling, and India notified Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code tweaks to ease MSME distress. Security & Crime: A federal grand jury indicted a teen in the Berea U.S. bank robbery that killed two employees, with prosecutors seeking findings that could support the death penalty.

Fed Power Shift: President Trump swore in Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, praising his “full independence” while openly pushing for lower rates to boost growth—setting up a fresh test of how far politics can reach monetary policy. West Bank Flashpoint: Italy, Britain, France and Germany condemned Israel’s West Bank settlement push, warning the proposed E1 development would violate international law and fragment the territory. Household Pressure: A bank levy can freeze customer funds after a court judgment, and while it may not always be permanent, it can lock away rent and essentials with little warning. UK Bank Holiday Disruption: Heatwave alerts are up to amber in parts of the UK, while travel chaos looms—crashes on the M4, rail closures, and Dover’s EU border checks are expected to drive long queues. Banking in the Dock: A High Court dismissed Seán Dunne’s bankruptcy challenge as “fantasy AI-generated submissions,” while in India the RBI fined City Union Bank and others for compliance lapses.

Rupee vs rates: India’s central bank is reportedly reluctant to use interest-rate hikes to defend the rupee, arguing inflation—not the currency—should drive borrowing costs, even as the rupee slides to record lows amid energy-price pressure. Payments sovereignty: A growing rift between the ECB and banks is slowing Europe’s push to cut reliance on US card giants, with a euro digital euro and a euro-pegged crypto consortium both in play. Banking tech shift: MoonPay is expanding into tokenized assets and DeFi via a new platform aimed at connecting banks and enterprises through one integration, while Standard Chartered reshapes Zodia toward tokenisation and infrastructure. Local banking push: Central Bank of India hands out Rs 123 crore in retail loan sanction letters, and EY says banks must win on customer experience as branches evolve into “phygital” advisory hubs. Health and heatwave: UK melanoma diagnoses hit a record 20,980 in 2022 as bank-holiday temperatures near 33C, prompting sun-safety and dog-walking warnings.

Digital Banking Push: Sovcombank for Business rolled out pre-approved “Express loans” inside online banking, aiming to cut paperwork for small firms with limits shown in-app and remote statement downloads. Banking Performance: MTS Bank reported Q1 IFRS net profit up 2.6x to RUB 2.5bn, with net interest income after reserves rising 3.7x. Tech Earnings Watch: Nvidia’s record results didn’t lift the stock after-hours, continuing a pattern of post-earnings dips despite strong guidance. Political Pressure on Elections: U.S. Sen. Jim Banks and Indiana AG Todd Rokita withdrew support for Secretary of State Diego Morales and backed Max Engling instead. UK Heatwave Disruptions: The Met Office and health bodies issued alerts for a bank-holiday scorcher, with temperatures near 30–33C in parts of England and warnings for vulnerable people. Fraud & Compliance: A Kirksville woman warned others after a scam caller used her name and even her bank details; in South Korea, Bithumb cut ties with Heleket over money-laundering and terrorism-financing risks. Legal Turning Point: Ghana’s Court of Appeal ordered the Bank of Ghana to restore GN Bank’s licence and return assets to original owners.

LIV Golf Funding Crunch: With Saudi PIF set to stop backing the league after 2026, LIV is now pitching a new go-forward business model to investors and exploring options including potential U.S. restructuring pathways as bankruptcy talk grows. Premier League Capital Move: In parallel, Saudi Arabia is ready to sell up to 25% of its Newcastle stake to raise cash for major club projects, including a proposed £200m training ground and possible stadium plans. Markets Turn Cautious: Indian stocks opened strong on May 21, led by banks and IT, as crude eased and global cues improved—though weekly expiry volatility is keeping traders on edge. Banking Tech & Access: Beacon Bank is offering free, on-demand live assistance for visually impaired customers via an app-based interpreter service, while Standard Bank faced a glitch that left some clients with wrong account access. Crypto Regulation Push: The U.S. Fed is moving toward “limited” payment accounts for non-traditional firms, and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren is again challenging crypto trust-bank approvals. Central Banks in Focus: Bank Indonesia surprised markets with a 50 bps rate hike to defend the rupiah, while Nigeria held its key rate at 26.5%.

AI vs Jobs: HSBC’s CEO urged staff not to “fight AI” as banks begin job cuts, while the EBA warned that AI-driven credit and other processes must be checked by humans at multiple points, not just at the end. US Immigration Banking Scrutiny: A new White House executive order tells regulators to issue “red flag” guidance on suspicious activity tied to undocumented workers, stopping short of mandatory citizenship checks but still raising compliance workload. Cybersecurity Exams Paused: US regulators paused some bank cyber exams tied to Anthropic’s Mythos AI, giving lenders time to patch vulnerabilities flagged by the model. Crypto Rule Shake-up: The European Commission has opened a review of MiCA to see if the rules still fit a fast-moving market, with consultations running to Aug 31. Deals & Growth: Grab will consolidate Indonesia’s Superbank into its financial services segment after GXS Bank buys more shares; Aditya Birla Capital approved a Rs 4,000 crore capital raise. UK Rates Context: Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey said Iran-linked energy shocks have kept rate cuts “off the table,” and warned supermarket price controls aren’t sustainable.